510 ABNT30 KNHC 011222 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2003 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... FIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEVELOPED DURING THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER... TROPICAL STORM HENRI...HURRICANE ISABEL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN...HURRICANE JUAN...AND HURRICANE KATE. IN ADDITION... HURRICANE FABIAN...COMPLETED ITS LIFE CYCLE IN SEPTEMBER. WITH ELEVEN NAMED TROPICAL CYCLONES FOR THE 2003 SEASON SO FAR...OVERALL ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IN AN AVERAGE SEASON...EIGHT TROPICAL CYCLONES WOULD HAVE FORMED BY THE END OF SEPTEMBER. THE SIX HURRICANES THAT HAVE DEVELOPED SO FAR THIS SEASON IS ALSO AHEAD OF THE NORMAL NUMBER...4.4...FOR THIS DATE. FABIAN FORMED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON 27 AUGUST AND ON 1 SEPTEMBER IT STRENGTHENED TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 MPH. THEREAFTER...FABIAN'S INTENSITY FLUCTUATED SOME...BUT IT REMAINED A MAJOR HURRICANE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. IT PASSED WELL NORTH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ON 3 SEPTEMBER AS ITS TRACK CURVED FROM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD. ON 5 SEPTEMBER...FABIAN HIT BERMUDA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 115 MPH...AND CAUSED 4 DEATHS AS WELL AS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE...ESTIMATED NEAR 300 MILLION U.S. DOLLARS... ON THAT ISLAND. THEN THE HURRICANE ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. FABIAN BECAME EXTRATROPICAL ABOUT 585 MILES EAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND ON 8 SEPTEMBER. THE DEATH TOLL OF 8 INCLUDES THREE FISHERMEN WHO DROWNED OFF OF NEWFOUNDLAND...AND A RIP CURRENT DROWNING NEAR CAPE HATTERAS. HENRI FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 3RD OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT MOVED SLOWLY EASTWARD AND ITS WINDS REACHED 50 MPH ON THE 5TH. WEAKENING...HENRI ACCELERATED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH WINDS OF 30 MPH. IT DISSIPATED ON THE 8TH ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA WHILE BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. HENRI DUMPED UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. LONG-LIVED HURRICANE ISABEL BEGAN AS A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ON THE 6TH. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM LATER THAT DAY...AND A HURRICANE ON THE 7TH AS IT TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. ISABEL MOVED NORTHWESTWARD ON THE 8TH AND 9TH AND BECAME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TURNED WESTWARD ON THE 10TH...AND ON THE 11TH IT BECAME A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. ISABEL REMAINED AT OR NEAR CATEGORY 5 INTENSITY UNTIL THE 15TH. THE HURRICANE CONTINUED WESTWARD THROUGH THE 12TH...THEN ISABEL TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE 13TH AND NORTHWESTWARD ON THE 15TH. WEAKENING BEGAN ON THE 16TH AS ISABEL TURNED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS MOTION BROUGHT ISABEL TO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR DRUM POINT ON THE 18TH AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE CONTINUED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL...EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON THE 19TH OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. ISABEL BROUGHT HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE REST OF THE REGION FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO NEW YORK. EXTENSIVE STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA...AND IN CHESAPEAKE BAY INCLUDING THE POTOMAC AND JAMES RIVERS. ABOVE NORMAL TIDES WERE REPORTED AS FAR NORTH AS LONG ISLAND. HEAVY RAINS ALSO OCCURRED ALONG THE TRACK OF ISABEL...WITH AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES IN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA AND AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS OHIO...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS FOR ISABEL ARE INCOMPLETE AT THIS TIME. ISABEL WAS DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR AT LEAST 13 DEATHS...WITH AT LEAST 17 MORE INDIRECTLY RELATED TO THE STORM. ISABEL CAUSED EXTENSIVE WIND AND WATER DAMAGE IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN MARYLAND...WITH A TRAIL OF LESSER DAMAGE EXTENDING ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA... VIRGINIA...MARYLAND...WEST VIRGINIA...DELAWARE...NEW JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND NEW YORK. DAMAGE FROM ISABEL MAY EVENTUALLY BE ASSESSED IN EXCESS OF ONE BILLION DOLLARS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ON THE 8TH ABOUT 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE DEPRESSION QUICKLY ENCOUNTERED UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DISSIPATED ON THE 10TH AS IT WAS PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. HURRICANE JUAN HAD A COMPLEX FORMATION...DEVELOPING FROM THE INTERACTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ON THE 25TH. INITIALLY...JUAN APPEARED TO HAVE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BUT BECAME FULLY TROPICAL AS IT MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH...PASSING ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. ITS WINDS REACHED 105 MPH ON THE 27TH AS IT CONTINUED NORTHWARD. AFTER SOME WEAKENING...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MADE LANDFALL IN NOVA SCOTIA NEAR HALIFAX LATE ON THE 28TH. ACCORDING TO METEOROLOGISTS FROM ENVIRONMENT CANADA...JUAN WAS THE WORST TROPICAL CYCLONE TO HIT THE AREA IN DECADES. CASUALTY AND DAMAGE STATISTICS FOR JUAN ARE INCOMPLETE AT THIS TIME. HURRICANE KATE DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON THE 25TH. AFTER MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT A DAY...THE SYSTEM TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 27TH. KATE THEN TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AND BRIEFLY REACHED HURRICANE INTENSITY ON THE 29TH. AT THE END OF THE MONTH...TROPICAL STORM KATE HAD TURNED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN WEST WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. SUMMARY TABLE - SEPTEMBER 2003 NAME DATES MAX WIND - MPH DEATHS ---------------------------------------------------------------- H FABIAN 27 AUG-8 SEP 145 8 TS HENRI 3-8 SEP 50 0 H ISABEL 6-19 SEP 160 13* TD FOURTEEN 8-10 SEP 35 0 H JUAN 25-29 SEP 105 * H KATE 25- SEP 75 0 ---------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE...DATES ARE BASED ON UNIVERSAL COORDINATED TIME...UTC * INFORMATION NOT COMPLETE AT THIS TIME. FORECASTER FRANKLIN/AVILA/BEVEN/LAWRENCE/PASCH/STEWART